Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds narrow leads over Democrat James Talarico in two newly released polls ahead of early voting that begins October 19 in the politically significant state.
The surveys arrive as the Senate race enters its final stretch, with both campaigns mobilizing substantial resources to shape the outcome. The polling underscores how closely the contest remains aligned despite decades of Republican dominance in statewide Texas elections.
What Happened
An InsiderAdvantage poll released Thursday measured Paxton at 49 percent support against Talarico’s 48 percent among 1,200 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.83 percentage points. A second survey from Quantus Insights, released earlier in the week, showed Paxton at 47.2 percent and Talarico at 46.7 percent—a half-point advantage within a similar margin of error.
The paired results contrast with other recent polling that has shown the race in different configurations. A Fox News survey conducted in October found Talarico leading 51 percent to 49 percent, illustrating how narrowly divided the electorate appears across different methodologies and sampling approaches.
What This Means
For Republicans, the latest numbers provide encouraging signals that Paxton can remain competitive despite internal party divisions stemming from his contentious Republican primary runoff victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Some Cornyn supporters have shown reluctance to fully consolidate behind Paxton, presenting a turnout challenge as the campaign enters its final weeks.
Paxton draws strong support from white evangelical Christians, rural voters, and older Texans—coalitions that have historically powered Republican statewide victories. However, Talarico demonstrates particular strength among independent voters, according to Quantus Insights data showing the Democrat leading that group 52 percent to 37 percent.
The financial scale of the contest reflects its competitive nature and national significance. Republican-aligned groups reported spending $131 million during September alone, with additional expenditures planned through Election Day. Democrats have similarly invested resources, with Talarico’s campaign reporting approximately $64 million raised in the third quarter.
Early voting begins October 19, giving campaigns roughly two weeks to convert their advertising spending and voter contact efforts into actual ballots cast before Election Day on November 3. The close polling margins suggest that turnout operations and campaign efficiency could prove decisive in determining the outcome.
