Benjamin Netanyahu’s political coalition led Israel’s partial election count Wednesday with 54 projected seats, but fell seven seats short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government as ballot counting continued.
With 76.8 percent of ballot boxes counted, the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot stood at 47 seats, while Arab-led parties held 19. The figures, available before 5:36 a.m. EDT, meant the country faced coalition negotiations rather than a clear winner, as either leader needed support from at least 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset.
The latest tally superseded earlier projections that had given Netanyahu’s camp 56 seats and overnight exit polls suggesting a much closer race. The partial count underscored why election surveys should not be mistaken for final results—earlier television exit polls had shown the two main blocs evenly split at 51 seats each, with a third poll placing Netanyahu’s bloc at 52 and the opposition at 49.
What Happened
The Jerusalem Post reported that more than four million votes had been counted by 11:20 a.m. Israeli time, with its update also placing Netanyahu’s bloc at 54 seats and the opposition grouping at 47. The results reflected unusually high voter participation, with the Central Elections Committee reporting turnout of 77.7 percent when polling stations closed—a 7.1 percentage point increase over the 2022 election.
Military participation was also notably high, with nearly 80 percent of Israeli troops voting, according to the military’s announcement. One significant factor remained outstanding: ballots cast through the double-envelope system used for soldiers, medical personnel, people with medical conditions, and Israeli representatives serving abroad. The Times of Israel estimated approximately 600,000 double envelopes, with their complete count potentially extending until Friday.
The Reaction
Netanyahu called for a strong government of the right during an appearance before supporters in Jerusalem early Wednesday, urging Jewish and Zionist political forces to unite and signaling that coalition negotiations would shape the next phase. His rival Eisenkot pledged to form a government despite falling short of a majority, but had campaigned against including Israeli Arab lawmakers in any governing coalition.
Arab parties could nevertheless provide parliamentary support to a minority administration without formally joining its coalition, according to reporting on political arrangements. Opposition politician Yair Golan urged cooperation with Arab parties, highlighting unresolved divisions over potential governing alliances. Such informal support arrangements would require political agreements, and the available results did not indicate that any understanding had been reached.
President Donald Trump welcomed Netanyahu’s performance and credited his own endorsement with influencing the outcome. Trump characterized the result as a potential comeback during the counting process, though his assessment represented his interpretation of the campaign rather than independent verification of his endorsement’s effect on voter behavior.
What This Means
Leading the partial count does not automatically guarantee the ability to form Israel’s government, particularly with competing parties resisting cooperation. President Isaac Herzog would ultimately select the candidate considered best positioned to form a majority, a formal role that shapes coalition dynamics. Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister until a new government took office, preserving his immediate position despite the incomplete vote tally.
Failed coalition negotiations could raise the possibility of another election, extending the country’s political uncertainty beyond the initial counting phase. The large number of reservoirs casting double-envelope ballots made this year’s political impact harder to predict with precision. As counting continued over the coming days, the trajectory of coalition negotiations would determine whether either leader could assemble the parliamentary support necessary to govern.
